PlanetEvidence: Planet or Noise?

The work presented here attempts at answering the following question: how do we decide when a given detection is a planet or just residual noise in exoplanet direct imaging data? To this end we implement a metric meant to replace the empirical frequentist-based thresholds for detection. Our method, implemented within a Bayesian framework, introduces an "evidence-based" approach to help decide whether a given detection is a true planet or just noise. We apply this metric jointly with a postprocessing technique and Karhunen–Loeve Image Processing (KLIP), which models and subtracts the stellar PSF from the image. As a proof of concept we implemented a new routine named PlanetEvidence that integrates the nested sampling technique (Multinest) with the KLIP algorithm. This is a first step to recast such a postprocessing method into a fully Bayesian perspective. We test our approach on real direct imaging data, specifically using GPI data of β Pictoris b, and on synthetic data. We find that for the former the method strongly favors the presence of a planet (as expected) and recovers the true parameter posterior distributions. For the latter case our approach allows us to detect (true) dim sources invisible to the naked eye as real planets, rather than background noise, and set a new lower threshold for detection at ∼2.5σ level. Further it allows us to quantify our confidence that a given detection is a real planet and not just residual noise.