The process-performance paradox in expert judgment - How can experts know so much and predict so badly?

A mysterious fatal disease strikes a large minority of the population. The disease is incurable, but an expensive drug can keep victims alive. Congress decides that the drug should be given to those whose lives can be extended longest, which only a few specialists can predict. The experts work around the clock searching for a cure; allocating the drug is a new chore they would rather avoid.