Published April 10, 2026
| Version Published
Journal Article
Open
Attributing 2019–2024 methane growth using TROPOMI satellite observations
Creators
-
1.
Harvard University
-
2.
Netherlands Institute for Space Research
-
3.
Jet Propulsion Lab
-
4.
California Institute of Technology
-
5.
Earth System Research Laboratory
Abstract
Atmospheric methane concentrations increased at a rate of 0.7% year−1 over 2019–2024, but the causes are unclear. We conducted an analytical inversion of bias-corrected TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite observations to quantify 2019–2024 annual mean methane emissions and hemispheric OH concentrations. We find that the methane rise from 2019 to 2024 reflects an approach to steady state between 2019 sources and sinks (59% of the rise), augmented by increasing emissions (25%) and decreasing OH concentrations (16%). Global emissions increased from 571 teragrams (Tg) per year in 2019 to 601 Tg per year in 2021 and back to 575 Tg per year in 2024. 2019–2024 emission decreases from oil/gas and rice were offset by increases from livestock and waste. East Africa and South America were most responsible for the 2019–2024 increase in emissions. The weaker methane rise over 2022–2024 was driven mostly by increasing OH concentrations rather than decreasing emissions.
Copyright and License
© 2026 the Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).
Acknowledgement
We thank the team that developed the TROPOMI instrument and its data products, consisting of the partnership between Airbus Defense and Space Netherlands, KNMI, SRON, and TNO, commissioned by NSO and ESA. Sentinel-5 Precursor is part of the EU Copernicus program, and we acknowledge the use of Copernicus Sentinel data from 2019 to 2024.
Funding
This work was funded by the NOAA AC4 program and by the US Greenhouse Gas Center. M.H. was supported by an NSF Graduate Research Fellowship. A portion of this research was performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
Data Availability
All data and code needed to evaluate and reproduce the results in the paper are present in the paper and/or the Supplementary Materials. The Integrated Methane Inversion version 2.0 code used in this study is archived at https://zenodo.org/records/15319959 (64). The blended TROPOMI+GOSAT data are available at https://registry.opendata.aws/blended-tropomi-gosat-methane/ (35). GEOS-Chem version 14.4.1 source code is archived at https://zenodo.org/records/12584192. This study did not generate new materials.
Supplemental Material
Figs. S1 to S9 (PDF)
Files
sciadv.adz9007.pdf
Additional details
Identifiers
- PMCID
- PMC13068062
- PMID
- 41961921
Related works
- Is new version of
- Discussion Paper: 10.22541/essoar.174886142.25607118/v1 (DOI)
Funding
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- AC4 Program -
- US Greenhouse Gas Center
- National Science Foundation
- NSF Graduate Research Fellowship -
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Dates
- Submitted
-
2025-06-18
- Accepted
-
2026-03-10
Caltech Custom Metadata
- Caltech groups
- Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences (GPS)
- Publication Status
- Published