Probability and Chance: Philosophical Aspects

The central philosophical issue involving probability concerns the interpretation of ordinary probability claims, such as 'there is a 30% probability that it will rain today.' Epistemic interpretations of probability understand this to be a claim about belief under uncertainty: it describes the extent to which a certain type of rational agent would (or ought to) believe that it will rain, given the available evidence. Objective interpretations of probability read the claim as describing some quantifiable feature of the objective world, sometimes called 'chance.' The concept of chance is thought by some to be intimately connected with indeterminism. A variety of epistemic and objective interpretations of probability will be discussed below.