Published February 27, 2026 | Version Published
Journal Article Open

The Antarctic coastal ocean heat budget is dominated by heat loss to land ice melt

  • 1. ROR icon California Institute of Technology
  • 2. ROR icon University of Maryland, College Park
  • 3. ROR icon University of California, Los Angeles

Abstract

Transport of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) across the Antarctic continental shelf break is the primary source of heat to Antarctica's marginal seas. Net heat supplied by CDW is ultimately lost to: (i) the ocean surface, either to the atmosphere or sea ice, or (ii) the ice sheet, by melting the base of ice shelves and calved icebergs. Ocean models often neglect the heat exchange needed to melt ice shelves and icebergs. Simulations presented here indicate that this omits the largest ocean heat sink on the Antarctic continental shelf, representing 60% of heat supplied across the shelf break. Suppressing this heat sink in simulations drives enhanced heat loss to the atmosphere through thinned sea ice cover as well as nonlocal reductions in heat supply to the continental shelf via sea ice–mediated stratification changes. These results highlight a source of climate model bias and clarify the dynamics of heat transport to Antarctic ice shelves.

Copyright and License

© 2026 the Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).

Acknowledgement

R.M. thanks Y. Si for answering questions about the LLC270-SO base configuration, M. Mazloff for help deciphering MITgcm heat budget terms, and F. A. Haumann for asking what meltwater temperature was used in R.M.’s prior meltwater perturbation work. We further thank two reviewers for time and attention.

Funding

R.M. and A.F.T. were supported by the National Science Foundation award OPP-2332460 and an Impact Grant from the Resnick Sustainability Institute at the California Institute of Technology. R.M. was additionally supported by the General Sir John Monash Foundation. A.L.S. and M.K.Y. were supported by the National Science Foundation, under award number OPP-2023244. A.L.S. was additionally supported by the National Science Foundation award OCE-1751386.

Data Availability

MITgcm base code and user manual are available from the project website, http://mitgcm.org/. Code needed to build and run the LLC270-SO simulations used in this work are provided at https://zenodo.org/records/17203352. The ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis product used to force the LLC270-SO runs has been depreciated and replaced with ERA5 since it was accessed for this study (access date: 5th December 2019). ERA-Interim is now only available on request from ECMWF, see https://ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/browse-reanalysis-datasets. No physical materials were generated for this study. All data and code needed to evaluate and reproduce the conclusions in the paper are present in the paper and/or the Supplementary Materials.

Supplemental Material

Figs. S1 to S13 (PDF)

Files

sciadv.aec7443.pdf

Files (33.4 MB)

Name Size
md5:60e82e88a78a382d2d074b6a1504f869
2.9 MB Preview Download
md5:247ada09f32738074183d185f29eb545
30.4 MB Preview Download

Additional details

Identifiers

Funding

National Science Foundation
OPP-2332460
Resnick Sustainability Institute
General Sir John Monash Foundation
John Monash Scholarship
National Science Foundation
OPP-2023244
National Science Foundation
OCE-1751386

Dates

Submitted
2025-10-03
Accepted
2026-01-07
Available
2026-01-25
Published online