Forecasting global atmospheric CO_2

A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO_2) real-time forecast is now available as part of the pre-operational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate – Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO_2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO_2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO_2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO_2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO_2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO_2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO_2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO_2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO_2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO_2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO_2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO_2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO_2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO_2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO_2 products retrieved from satellite measurements and CO_2 in situ observations, as they become available in near-real time. In this way, the accumulation of errors in the atmospheric CO_2 forecast will be reduced. Improvements in the CO_2 forecast are also expected with the continuous developments in the operational IFS.