CaltechAUTHORS
Published November 13, 2024 | Version Preprint
Discussion Paper Open

Global Carbon Budget 2024

Creators

  • 1. ROR icon University of Exeter
  • 2. ROR icon Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace
  • 3. ROR icon University of East Anglia
  • 4. ROR icon Center for International Climate and Environmental Research
  • 5. ROR icon Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
  • 6. ROR icon University of Bremen
  • 7. ROR icon Flanders Marine Institute
  • 8. ROR icon Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research
  • 9. ROR icon Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
  • 10. ROR icon Wageningen University & Research
  • 11. ROR icon University of Bergen
  • 12. ROR icon Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
  • 13. ROR icon University of Groningen
  • 14. ROR icon Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
  • 15. ROR icon Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
  • 16. ROR icon Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
  • 17. ROR icon Stanford University
  • 18. ROR icon Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
  • 19. ROR icon Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
  • 20. ROR icon Environment and Climate Change Canada
  • 21. ROR icon Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences
  • 22. ROR icon University of Reading
  • 23. ROR icon Instituto Nacional de Investigacion y Desarrollo Pesquero
  • 24. ROR icon Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research
  • 25. Hakai Institute, British Columbia, V0P 1H0, Canada
  • 26. CSIRO Environment, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, Tasmania 7004, Australia
  • 27. Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
  • 28. ROR icon University of Maryland, College Park
  • 29. ROR icon Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center
  • 30. ROR icon Federal University of Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées
  • 31. ROR icon Stellenbosch University
  • 32. Southern Ocean Carbon – Climate Observatory, CSIR, Rosebank, Cape Town, 7700, South Africa
  • 33. ROR icon Tsinghua University
  • 34. ROR icon Japan Meteorological Agency
  • 35. ROR icon Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
  • 36. ROR icon National Center for Atmospheric Research
  • 37. ROR icon International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • 38. ROR icon Joint Research Centre
  • 39. ROR icon ETH Zurich
  • 40. ROR icon Appalachian State University
  • 41. ROR icon Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • 42. ROR icon Universität Hamburg
  • 43. ROR icon Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
  • 44. ROR icon University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
  • 45. ROR icon Nanjing University
  • 46. ROR icon Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research
  • 47. ROR icon Peking University
  • 48. ROR icon Institute of Applied Energy
  • 49. ROR icon University of California, San Diego
  • 50. ROR icon Utrecht University
  • 51. ROR icon Western Sydney University
  • 52. ROR icon Norwegian Research Centre
  • 53. ROR icon Sorbonne University
  • 54. ROR icon Jet Propulsion Lab
  • 55. ROR icon California Institute of Technology
  • 56. ROR icon National Institute for Environmental Studies
  • 57. ROR icon Villefranche Oceanographic Laboratory
  • 58. ROR icon University of Alaska Fairbanks
  • 59. ROR icon Fisheries Research Agency
  • 60. ROR icon University of Edinburgh
  • 61. ROR icon Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
  • 62. ROR icon Sun Yat-sen University
  • 63. ROR icon Princeton University
  • 64. ROR icon Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
  • 65. ROR icon University of Oxford
  • 66. ROR icon GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
  • 67. Institute for Climate and Environmental Physics, Bern, Switzerland
  • 68. ROR icon Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
  • 69. ROR icon Boston College
  • 70. ROR icon University of Tasmania
  • 71. ROR icon Barcelona Supercomputing Center
  • 72. ROR icon Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
  • 73. ROR icon Institute of Atmospheric Physics
  • 74. ROR icon Oak Ridge National Laboratory
  • 75. ROR icon Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
  • 76. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, Maryland, USA

Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2-products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements and Earth System Models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ.

For the year 2023, EFOS increased by 1.3 % relative to 2022, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 (10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), ELUC was 1.0 ± 0.7 GtC yr-1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr-1 (40.6 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr-1). Also, for 2023, GATM was 5.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1 (2.79 ± 0.1 ppm yr-1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr-1 and SLAND was 2.3 ± 1.0 GtC yr-1, with a near zero BIM (-0.02 GtC yr-1). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2023 reached 419.3 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2024, suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2023 of +0.8 % (-0.3 % to 1.9 %) globally, and atmospheric CO2 concentration increased by 2.8 ppm reaching 422.5 ppm, 52 % above pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2023, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr-1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink.

This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. 

Copyright and License

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Data Availability

 The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024).

Funding

This research was supported by the following sources of funding: The Argentinian-Uruguayan Joint Technical
Commission of the Maritime Front (Comisión Técnica Mixta del Frente Marítimo, CTMFM) (Argentina);
Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Dessarrollo Pesquero (Argentina); Australia’s Integrated Marine Observing
System (IMOS) which is enabled by the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy (NCRIS)
(Australia); Australian Earth-System Simulator National Research Infrastructure (ACCESS-NRI) (Australia);
Australian National Environmental Science Program, Climate Systems Hub (Australia); Research Foundation
Flanders (ICOS Flanders, grant no. I001821N) (Belgium); Tula Foundation (Canada); National Key Research and
Development Program (grant no. 2023YFF0805400) (China); National Key Research and Development Program
(grant no. 2023YFB3907404) (China); Jiangsu Provincial Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (Grant
No: BK20231530) (China); National Natural Science Foundation (grant no. 42141020) (China); Carbon
Neutrality and Energy System Transformation (CNEST) Program led by Tsinghua University, granted by National
Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2023YFE0113000) (China); Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific
Expedition and Research Program (Grant: 2022QZKK0101) (China); CAS Project for Young Scientists in Basic Research, Grant No.YSBR-037 (China); grant no. 2021YFD2200405 (China); 1973 Copernicus Atmosphere
Monitoring Service, implemented by ECMWF (Grant: CAMS2 55) (European Commission); Copernicus Marine
Environment Monitoring Service, implemented by MOi (Grant: CMEMS-TAC-MOB) (European Commission);
H2020 4C (grant no. 821003) (European Commission); H2020 ESM2025 – Earth System Models for the Future
(grant no. 101003536) (European Commission); H2020 GEORGE (grant no. 101094716) (European
Commission); Horizon Europe (EYE-CLIMA: grant no. 101081395) (European Commission); ERC-2022-STG
OceanPeak (Grant 101077209) (European Commission); Horizon Europe Grant 101083922 (OceanICU
Improving Carbon Understanding) (European Commission); Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme
under Grant Agreements N° 101056939 (RESCUE project) (European Commission); COMFORT project (grant
no. 820989) (European Commission); Climate Space RECCAP-2 (European Space Agency); Ocean Carbon for
Climate (European Space Agency); EO-LINCS (European Space Agency); OceanSODA project, grant no.
4000112091/14/I-LG (European Space Agency); Institut National des Sciences de l’Univers (INSU) (France);
Institut Polaire français, Paul-Emile Victor (IPEV) (France); Observatoire des sciences de l'univers Ecce-Terra
(OSU at Sorbonne Université) (France); Institut de recherché français sur les ressources marines (IFREMER)
(France); French Oceanographic Fleet (FOF) (France); ICOS-France (France); Institut de Recherche pour le
Développement (IRD) (France); Agence Nationale de la Recherche - France 2030 (PEPR TRACCS programme
under grant number ANR-22-EXTR-0009) (France); Institut de l'Océan and the Institut des Sciences du Calcul et
des Données of Sorbonne University (IDEX SUPER 11-IDEX-0004, project-team FORMAL) (France); Federal
Ministry of Education and Research, collaborative project C-SCOPE (project no. 03F0877A) (Germany);
Helmholtz Association ATMO programme (Germany); Initiative and Networking Fund of the Helmholtz
Association (grant no. VH-NG-19-33) (Germany); ICOS Germany (Germany); German Federal Ministry of
Education and Research (BMBF), project STEPSEC (grant no. 01LS2102A) (Germany); Helmholtz Young
Investigator Group Marine Carbon and Ecosystem Feedbacks in the Earth System (MarESys), grant number VH1996
NG-1301 (Germany); Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) under Germany's Excellence Strategy – EXC
2037 ‘Climate, Climatic Change, and Society’ – Project Number: 390683824 (Germany); Arctic Challenge for
Sustainability phase II project (ArCS-II; grant no. JP-MXD1420318865) (Japan); Environment Research and
Technology Development Fund (grant no. JPMEERF24S12206) (Japan); CREST, Japan Science and Technology
Agency (grant no. JPMJCR23J4) (Japan); Global Environmental Research Coordination System, Ministry of the
Environment (grant no. E2252) (Japan); Meteorological Agency (Japan); Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,
numbers JPMXD0722680395 and JPMXD0722681344) (Japan); Meteorological Research Institute and the
Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF24S12200) (Japan); NIES GOSAT project
(Japan); Research Council of Norway (N-ICOS-2, grant no. 296012) (Norway); Research Council of Norway
(grant no. 270061) (Norway); Swiss National Science Foundation (grant no. 200020-200511) (Switzerland);
Natural Environmental Research Council, National Centre for Earth Observation (NE/R016518/1) (UK); Natural
Environment Research Council, UK EO Climate Information Service (NE/X019071/1) (UK); Natural
Environment Research Council (NE/V01417X/1) (UK); Natural Environment Research Council, National Centre
for Atmospheric Science (UK); Natural Environment Research Council (NE/Y005260/1) (UK); UK Royal Society
(grant no. RP\R1\191063) (UK); Natural Environment Research Council (Grant Ref: NE/V013106/1) (UK);
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977) 2012 (USA); NOAA Ocean
Acidification Program (grant no. 100018228) (USA); NOAA Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program
(grant no. 100018302) (USA); NOAA cooperative agreement NA22OAR4320151 (USA); NOAA cooperative
agreement NA20OAR4310340 (USA); NOAA (grant no. 1305M322PNRMJ0338); NASA (grant no.
80NSSC22K0150); NASA (grant no. 80NM0018D0004); National Science Foundation (NSF-2019625) (USA);
National Science Foundation (NSF-831361857) (USA); NASA Terrestrial Ecology Program (USA); NASA
Carbon Monitoring System program (80NSSC21K1059) (USA); NASA Land Cover and Land Use Change
Program (80NSSC24K0920) (USA); National Science Foundation (NSF-1903722) (USA); National Science
Foundation (NSF-1852977) (USA); The U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and
Environmental Research (USA); The Department for Education SciDac (grant number: DESC0012972) (USA);
IDS (grant number: 80NSSC17K0348) (USA); Schmidt Sciences, LLC (USA).

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Additional details

Funding

Research Foundation - Flanders
I001821N
Tula Foundation
Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China
2023YFB3907404
Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China
2023YFE0113000
Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China
2023YFF0805400
Jiangsu Province Science and Technology Department
BK20231530
National Natural Science Foundation of China
42141020
Chinese Academy of Sciences
YSBR-037
Chinese Academy of Sciences
2021YFD2200405
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
CAMS2 55
European Commission
101003536
European Commission
101094716
European Commission
101056939
HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme
101081395
HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme
101083922
European Research Council
101077209
European Research Council
CAMS2 55
European Research Council
CMEMS-TAC-MOB
European Research Council
820989
European Space Agency
4000112091/14/I-LG
Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers
Institut Polaire Français Paul Émile Victor
Ifremer
Flotte Océanographique Française
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
Agence Nationale de la Recherche
ANR-22-EXTR-0009
Sorbonne Université
IDEX SUPER 11-IDEX-0004
Federal Ministry of Education and Research
03F0877A
Federal Ministry of Education and Research
01LS2102A
Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres
ATMO
Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres
VH-NG-19-33
Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres
VH-NG-1301
Integrated Carbon Observation System
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
390683824
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
JPMXD1420318865
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
JPMXD0722680395
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
JPMXD0722681344
Ministry of the Environment
JPMEERF24S12206
Ministry of the Environment
E2252
Ministry of the Environment
JPMEERF24S12200
Meteorological Research Institute
Japan Science and Technology Agency
JPMJCR23J4
The Research Council of Norway
296012
The Research Council of Norway
270061
Swiss National Science Foundation
200020-200511
Natural Environment Research Council
NE/X019071/1
Natural Environment Research Council
NE/V01417X/1
Natural Environment Research Council
NE/Y005260/1
Natural Environment Research Council
NE/V013106/1
National Centre for Earth Observation
NE/R016518/1
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Royal Society
RP\\R1\\191063
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research
1852977
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
100018228
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
100018302
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NA22OAR4320151
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NA20OAR4310340
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
1305M322PNRMJ0338
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
80NSSC21K1059
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
80NSSC24K0920
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
80NSSC22K0150
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
80NM0018D0004
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
80NSSC17K0348
National Science Foundation
NSF-2019625
National Science Foundation
NSF-831361857
National Science Foundation
NSF-1903722
National Science Foundation
NSF-1852977
United States Department of Energy
United States Department of Education
DESC0012972

Dates

Submitted
2024-11-06
Received
Accepted
2024-11-13
Discussion started

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