The progenitor star of SN 2023ixf: a massive red supergiant with enhanced, episodic pre-supernova mass loss

We identify the progenitor star of SN 2023ixf in Messier 101 using Keck/NIRC2 adaptive optics imaging and pre-explosion Hubble Space Telescope (HST)/Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) images. The supernova, localized with diffraction spikes and high-precision astrometry, unambiguously coincides with a progenitor candidate of $m_\text{F814W}=24.87\pm 0.05$ (AB). Given its reported infrared excess and semiregular variability, we fit a time-dependent spectral energy distribution (SED) model of a dusty red supergiant (RSG) to a combined data set of HST optical, ground-based near-infrared, and Spitzer Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) [3.6], [4.5] photometry. The progenitor resembles an RSG of $T_\text{eff}=3488\pm 39$ K and $\log (L/\mathrm{L}_\odot)=5.15\pm 0.02$, with a $0.13\pm 0.01$ dex ($31.1\pm 1.7$ per cent) luminosity variation at a period of $P=1144.7\pm 4.8$ d, obscured by a dusty envelope of $\tau =2.92\pm 0.02$ at $1\, \mu \text{m}$ in optical depth (or $A_\text{V}=8.43\pm 0.11$ mag). The signatures match a post-main-sequence star of $18.2_{-0.6}^{+1.3}\, \mathrm{M}_\odot$ in zero-age main-sequence mass, among the most massive SN II progenitor, with a pulsation-enhanced mass-loss rate of $\dot{M}=(4.32\pm 0.26)\times 10^{-4} \, \mathrm{M}_\odot \, \text{yr}^{-1}$. The dense and confined circumstellar material is ejected during the last episode of radial pulsation before the explosion. Notably, we find strong evidence for variations of $\tau$ or $T_\text{eff}$ along with luminosity, a necessary assumption to reproduce the wavelength-dependent variability, which implies periodic dust sublimation and condensation. Given the observed SED, partial dust obscuration remains possible, but any unobstructed binary companion over $5.6\, \mathrm{ M}_\odot$ can be ruled out.