Published May 24, 2016 | Version Published + Supplemental Material
Journal Article Open

Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol−cloud interactions in the climate system

  • 1. ROR icon California Institute of Technology
  • 2. ROR icon University of Washington
  • 3. ROR icon University of Leeds
  • 4. ROR icon University of Manchester
  • 5. ROR icon Colorado State University
  • 6. ROR icon National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
  • 7. ROR icon Earth System Research Laboratory
  • 8. ROR icon Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
  • 9. ROR icon University of California, Irvine
  • 10. ROR icon Goddard Space Flight Center
  • 11. ROR icon University of California, San Diego
  • 12. ROR icon Georgia Institute of Technology
  • 13. ROR icon FORTH Institute of Chemical Engineering Sciences
  • 14. ROR icon National Observatory of Athens
  • 15. ROR icon University of Michigan–Ann Arbor
  • 16. ROR icon Princeton University
  • 17. ROR icon Hebrew University of Jerusalem
  • 18. ROR icon Jet Propulsion Lab

Abstract

The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol−cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol−cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol−cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

Additional Information

© 2016 National Academy of Sciences. The authors acknowledge Dr. Kristina Pistone for taking meticulous notes during the Colloquium. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is operated for the US Department of Energy (DOE) by Battelle Memorial Institute under Contract DE-AC06-76RLO 1830. Work at PNNL was supported by the US DOE Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction using Earth System Models program and by the US DOE Earth System Modeling program. Author contributions: J.H.S., C.B., K.S.C., H.C., P.J.D., E.J.D., G.F., S.G., A.B.G., R.K., I.K., S.M.K., M.J.M., A.N., J.E.P., K.A.P., V. Ramanathan, V. Ramaswamy, P.J.R., A.R.R., D.R., G.S., and R.W. wrote the paper. The authors declare no conflict of interest. This paper results from the Arthur M. Sackler Colloquium of the National Academy of Sciences, "Improving Our Fundamental Understanding of the Role of Aerosol–Cloud Interactions in the Climate System," held June 23−24, 2015, at the Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center of the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering in Irvine, CA. The complete program and video recordings of most presentations are available on the NAS website at www.nasonline.org/Aerosol_Cloud_Interactions. This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1514043113/-/DCSupplemental.

Attached Files

Published - PNAS-2016-Seinfeld-5781-90.pdf

Supplemental Material - pnas.201514043SI.pdf

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Additional details

Identifiers

PMCID
PMC4889348
Eprint ID
67330
Resolver ID
CaltechAUTHORS:20160525-075839327

Funding

Department of Energy (DOE)
DE-AC06-76RLO 1830

Dates

Created
2016-05-26
Created from EPrint's datestamp field
Updated
2023-02-22
Created from EPrint's last_modified field